Insider Signal

Research · Stream 1 of 2

Insider Edge — how the signal is built.

Insider Edge is the real-time stream of our research desk. It reads primary-source regulatory filings — SEC Form 4 and congressional PTR disclosures — scores each transaction in an actor-aware way, and publishes qualifying rows to VIP the moment they clear the filter. The same rows become public after a fixed delay, and every signal is tracked at 30 and 90 days.

Who we are

A small, data-driven research desk. Two research streams under one membership: Insider Edge (this page) and IPO Toxic Detector. We do not run a paid tip network, we do not accept placed content, and we do not guess. Everything is derived from public filings through a fixed pipeline.

What we analyze

  • SEC Form 4

    Officers, directors, and 10%+ shareholders of US issuers file within two business days of a reportable transaction. We parse the full feed, link it to the underlying ticker, and extract size, direction, and filer role.

  • Congressional PTR disclosures

    Members of the US Congress are required to file Periodic Transaction Reports for securities trades above a statutory threshold. We pull the public disclosures and treat each filer as a distinct actor with its own prior-signal history.

  • Verification / follow-up layer

    Every published signal is re-read at 30 and 90 days against the then-current price. Outcomes are written to the archive — positive or negative. Nothing is removed.

  • Signal → proof → follow-up

    The pipeline is linear: filing → score → publish → immutable follow-up. The public row is always the exact row VIP saw first.

What we’ve built so far

  • Ingest + normalization pipeline

    Continuous pull from SEC and House disclosure endpoints, deduplication, ticker linking, and normalization of transaction metadata.

  • Actor-aware scoring engine

    Score combines trade size, filing freshness, insider role, cluster behavior, and the actor’s own prior-signal track record. Thresholds map to labels Strong / High / Watch.

  • Delivery + VIP / public split

    VIP receives every signal in real time on web and Telegram. The same row becomes public after a fixed delay — the split is mechanical, not editorial.

  • Archive with tracked outcomes

    Public archive at /archive. 30d / 90d outcomes on each row, losers included, frozen entries.

Current archive state: 4,892 economically independent campaigns, 4,892 matured 30-day, 54.97% positive completed outcomes, median +1.26%. Losses included. Signal-row statistics are secondary and not independent trades.

Where the edge comes from

  • Not news

    We do not trade on commentary. The input is always a primary-source legal filing.

  • Not raw filings

    Raw Form 4 is noisy. We rank by actor, size, freshness and cluster behavior — most filings never become signals.

  • Explainable

    Every signal carries its own reasons, actor history and follow-up outcome. Nothing is a black box.

What you get as a user

  • VIP

    Real-time VIP stream on web and in a dedicated Telegram channel. Every signal the moment it clears the filter. Full detail pages, full archive, every follow-up outcome.

  • Public

    Same signals on a fixed delay. Full archive with 30d / 90d outcomes is always open — losers kept.

Honest limits

  • Not every filing matters

    Most Form 4 entries are routine compensation flow. They are filtered out by design — most filings never become signals.

  • Not every signal works

    Signals print losers. The archive shows them. Aggregate stats are computed over the same full set — winners and losers together.

  • Research, not advice

    Signals are an informational research artifact. Position sizing, execution, taxes and slippage are your responsibility.

  • No guaranteed returns

    Past signal outcomes do not guarantee future results. Anyone promising guaranteed returns is selling a different product.

Verify the research yourself

Every claim on this page is independently verifiable. Start in the archive, then read a detail page.